Sporting News’ ranking of the NCAA Tournament teams in order of their potential to win the NCAA championship is an annual exercise that has been often copied, never exceeded. The factors that go into this ranking are many, but among those included is a team’s draw — an easier draw might place a team higher on the list than its talent and performance would indicate, a tougher draw will drop a team a few spots.
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Here they are, 1-68:
Michigan State – Much of this is the influence of Denzel Valentine, who has become so good under duress it almost seems unfair to the opponents who create the duress. They do their jobs, do them well, he figures out a way to make good things happen anyway. But the rapid ascent of senior Matt Costello and freshman Deyonta Davis on the interior is equally important to a team that is not elite defensively on the perimeter.
Kansas – Kansas has had the best season, and it’s an excellent team with a variety of ways to win. The Jayhawks can turn to any number of players to conjure the big play: Wayne Selden (as he did against Kentucky); Perry Ellis (as he did in the first Oklahoma game) or Devontè Graham (as he did against Oklahoma in their second meeting). It’s usually best to have one obvious, I’m-getting-this-done option. Perhaps that player emerges from the crowd as Sherron Collins did in 2008.
Oregon – The Ducks are not the third-best team in the field, but they’re better than people realize and they’ve been overwhelmingly empowered by the committee’s decision to keep any other legit title contenders out of their region.
North Carolina – The Tar Heels are not the fourth-best team in the field, but the committee sandbagged them with so many potential champions that merely surviving the East might merit a playing of “One Shining Moment.”
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Kentucky – Four Final Fours in five years. Not one of them was an easy ride. This would be tougher than most.
Indiana – Is Indiana going to win this thing? Probably not, because they’d have to survive Kentucky and Carolina just to reach the Elite Eight. But they’re good enough.
Xavier – The Musketeers’ trick now that they’ve come this far is to perform like they understand they can win the biggest games.
Virginia – Watching the Cavaliers struggle to conjure baskets against North Carolina down the stretch of the ACC final did not engender the confidence they could do it as required in the tournament’s final three games.
Villanova – Everybody remembers the past two years’ early exits. No one remembers just seven years ago when the Wildcats made the Final Four. Come on, now, it wasn’t that long ago.
Maryland – The Terps began the year with coach Mark Turgeon talking about the team owning Final Four talent. They have not played like a Final Four team to date. Now would be the best time, though.
Texas A&M
Purdue
Utah
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Oklahoma – The Sooners are so jumpshot-dependent that the NCAA Championship seems far away, but they have to be pleased with a draw that puts them in good shape for a Final Four run.
Miami
WVU – The Mountaineers have had a tremendous season, but are they really going to encounter six consecutive teams that can’t handle pressure defense? Not likely.
California – For all the offensive talent on this team, the Bears rank 47th in efficiency. That’s hard to reconcile.
Duke – The Blue Devils can score with anyone, and that could get them to Houston, but there’s just no way they’re winning on the big stage without getting stops.
Seton Hall
Arizona
Baylor
Iowa – After their dismal performance in the Big Ten Tournament, the Hawkeyes seemed to be weary of the season. The only choices now: rejuvenation or elimination.
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Iowa State
Providence
Southern California
Vanderbilt – The talent is still there. What exactly is missing?
Connecticut
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Wichita State – It would take five wins for Shockers guards Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker to get back to the Final Four. That’s a lot. But whatever happens they’ll leave college basketball with four NCAA appearances, an undefeated regular season and that Final Four in 2013. That’s a lot.
Colorado
Dayton
Texas
Notre Dame
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Cincinnati – In Cincinnati they are wondering which 20-percent 3-point shooter will throw in a shot from midcourt or beyond to eliminate the Bearcats from this event.
Saint Joseph’s
Pitt
VCU
Temple
Syracuse
Oregon State – It is so nice to see the Beavers back in the NCAA Tournament field, and Wayne Tinkle has done such an amazing job restoring the program, that it almost feels bad to criticize their No. 7 seed. Almost.
Butler
Michigan
Stephen F. Austin — The Lumberjacks shown before they can win a game in this deal. And they’re called the Lumberjacks. Can you believe we have Lumberjacks vs. Mountaineers? The NBA gives you Thunder vs. Heat. Advantage: college hoops.
Northern Iowa
Little Rock
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Hawaii
Fresno State
Texas Tech
Yale
UNC Wilmington
Tulsa – Someday in the distant future, archaeologists will discover Tulsa’s name on the 2016 NCAA Tournament bracket and will be as stumped at that inclusion as we are today about Stonehenge.
Iona
Chattanooga
Stony Brook
South Dakota State
Buffalo
Weber State
Green Bay
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Bakersfield
UNC Asheville
Middle Tennessee State
Hampton
Austin Peay
Florida Gulf Coast
Southern
Holy Cross
Fairleigh Dickinson – At least they’re on the list. Remember that.